Bibliography - C. M. Little

1. Little, C. M., Michael Oppenheimer, and Nathan M. Urban, March 2013: Upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic framework. Nature Climate Change, Macmillan Publishers Limited, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1845
   [ Abstract ]

   Climate adaptation and flood risk assessments have incorporated sea-level rise (SLR) projections developed using semi-empirical methods (SEMs) and expert-informed mass-balance scenarios. These techniques, which do not explicitly model ice dynamics, generate upper bounds on twenty-first century SLR that are up to three times higher than Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates. However, the physical basis underlying these projections, and their likelihood of occurrence, remain unclear. Here, we develop mass-balance projections for the Antarctic ice sheet within a Bayesian probabilistic framework, integrating numerical model output and updating projections with an observational synthesis.Without abrupt, sustained, changes in ice discharge (collapse), we project a 95th percentile mass loss equivalent to ~13 cm SLR by 2100, lower than previous upper-bound projections. Substantially higher mass loss requires regional collapse, invoking dynamics that are likely to be inconsistent with the underlying assumptions of SEMs. In this probabilistic framework, the pronounced sensitivity of upper-bound SLR projections to the poorly known likelihood of collapse is lessened with constraints on the persistence and magnitude of subsequent discharge. More realistic, fully probabilistic, estimates of the ice-sheet contribution to SLR may thus be obtained by assimilating additional observations and numerical models.

2. Little, C. M., Daniel Goldberg, A. Gnanadesikan, and Michael Oppenheimer, 2012: On the coupled response to ice-shelf basal melting. Journal of Glaciology, 58(208), doi:10.3189/2012JoG11J037 203-215
   [ Abstract ]

   Ice-shelf basal melting is tightly coupled to ice-shelf morphology. Ice shelves, in turn, are coupled to grounded ice via their influence on compressive stress at the grounding line ('ice-shelf buttressing'). Here, we examine this interaction using a local parameterization that relates the basal melt rate to the ice-shelf thickness gradient. This formulation permits a closed-form solution for a steady-state ice tongue. Time-dependent numerical simulations reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of ice-shelf/ice-stream systems in response to changes in ocean temperature, and the influence of morphology-dependent melting on grounding-line retreat.We find that a rapid (<1 year) re-equilibration in upstream regions of ice shelves establishes a spatial pattern of basal melt rates (relative to the grounding line) that persists over centuries. Coupling melting to ice-shelf shape generally, but not always, increases grounding-line retreat rates relative to a uniform distribution with the same areaaverage melt rate. Because upstream ice-shelf thickness gradients and retreat rates increase nonlinearly with thermal forcing, morphology-dependent melting is more important to the response of weakly buttressed, strongly forced ice streams grounded on beds that slope upwards towards the ocean (e.g. those in the Amundsen Sea).

3. Donner, S. D., W. J. Skirving, C. M. Little, Michael Oppenheimer, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2005: Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11(12), doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x 2251-2265
   [ Abstract ]

   Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reefbuilding corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral ReefWatch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world’s coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2 – 1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Direct link to page: http://cmi.princeton.edu/bibliography/results.php?author=4170